Thursday Afternoon Coffee - Markets Update - 15 May 2025 - Wall Street Mixed as S&P 500 Climbs; Oil Slides, Gold Jumps Amid Inflation, Trade Jitters

The Trade Academy Team
May 15
3 min read

Markets Update: U.S. stocks ended Thursday with modest gains for the S&P 500 and Dow, while the Nasdaq snapped a six-day rally. Markets wavered as inflation data surprised to the downside, oil prices plunged, and investors weighed signs of economic slowdown alongside shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Global Markets Roundup: 15 May 2025

S&P 500 Gains; Industrials Near Record

The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 5,914.54, lifted by strength in defensive sectors and a rally in Cisco Systems after a strong forecast. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1% as UnitedHealth sank on reports of a criminal probe. Gains were concentrated in sectors seen as more stable amid uncertainty. Utilities and consumer staples both surged around 2%, while consumer discretionary stocks lagged, shedding nearly 0.7%. The industrials sector is now just 0.93% off its all-time high from November 29, positioning it to potentially lead the broader market back to record territory.

Global Equities Mixed; Europe Rallies

Global stocks edged higher despite volatility. The MSCI World Index rose 0.24%, while European shares recovered from early weakness. The STOXX 600 closed up 0.6%, led by a rebound in financials and consumer stocks. Britain's economy grew 0.2% in March, exceeding expectations, and euro zone industrial production also surprised to the upside. However, overall Q1 euro area GDP remained weak.

Retail Sales Slow, Producer Prices Fall

Economic data released Thursday painted a murky picture. Retail sales edged up just 0.1% in April, slowing from a sharp 1.7% increase in March. Meanwhile, producer prices unexpectedly dropped 0.5%, raising concerns over weakening demand. He added that with inconsistent data, the Federal Reserve risks overreacting: “A data-dependent Fed might end up amplifying the noise.” Initial jobless claims held steady at 229,000, but signs of weaker consumer sentiment and limited job openings are fueling concerns about Q2 growth.

Powell Warns of ‘More Frequent’ Shocks

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at a policy conference, didn’t comment directly on rates but said the central bank must reconsider how it views inflation and employment. Governor Michael Barr echoed that sentiment, noting inflation is easing but trade policy remains a wildcard. Markets have scaled back expectations for a July rate cut, now seeing September as more likely. According to LSEG data, there’s a 75.4% chance of a cut of at least 25 basis points by September.

Currencies and Bonds React to Softer Data

The dollar weakened slightly as economic data disappointed. The Dollar Index DXY fell 0.11% to 100.89, while the euro EURUSD ticked up to $1.1176. The dollar also slid 0.73% to 145.68 yen. Treasury yields declined as investors bought bonds on renewed recession concerns. The U.S. 10-year yield dropped 7.5 basis points to 4.453%, while the German 10-year Bund yield dipped to 2.616%.

Oil Tumbles on Iran Deal Hopes; Gold Rallies

Crude prices fell sharply as hopes of a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement rekindled supply concerns. Brent crude dropped 2.4% to around $60 per barrel, marking a more than 20% decline since mid-January. President Trump, on a Middle East tour, said Tehran had “sort of” agreed to terms of a deal. Iranian adviser Ali Shamkhani added that Iran would renounce nuclear weapons and dispose of enriched uranium. BNP Paribas economist Paul Hollingsworth warned the drop in oil may deepen deflationary pressure in Europe, where U.S. tariffs are already hitting growth. Gold, meanwhile, climbed as investors sought safety. U.S. gold futures settled up 1.2% at $3,226.60 per ounce.

Grains Mixed as Soybeans Fall

Agricultural markets saw mixed action. Wheat surged on bargain buying, while soybeans fell sharply amid fears of plummeting exports if trade talks with China falter.

CBOT Soybeans (ZS1!): -26½ cents to $10.51¼/bushel
CBOT Corn (ZC1!): +3 cents to $4.48½/bushel
CBOT Wheat (ZW1!): +8 cents to $5.32¾/bushel

Outlook

After a flurry of optimism earlier in the week from a U.S.-China trade truce and Middle East investment announcements, markets are now digesting weaker data and volatile signals from the Fed. With oil plunging, inflation softening, and recession risks lingering, markets are bracing for more uncertainty in the weeks ahead.

Looking forward refer to the economic calendar below to see the upcoming events scheduled for today and the rest of the week.

General news - Information source from multiple newswires.

The article and the data is for general information use only, not advice!

The Trade Academy Team