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(US) Market Trading Hours Summary: Stocks move lower as FOMC meeting week begins
Mon, 31 Oct 2022 10:12 AM EST
Summary
US stock markets opened lower after Eurozone inflation surged to a record high of 10.7%. The focal point of the week will likely be Wednesday, when Fed officials are expected to raise interest rates by another 75bps. Investors are awaiting clues on whether the Fed may slow the size and pace of rate increases going forward or if concerns over elevated inflation will cause them to pursue strong efforts to tame it. The US 2-year yield has held near 4.5% and the US dollar index is back above 111. Meme stocks have seen a bit of a revival while the Dow is looking to close Oct with the best monthly performance since 1976.
Overnight:
- China Oct Manufacturing PMI (Govt Official) moves back into contraction (49.2 v 49.8e)
- Japan Sept Retail Sales beat consensus (M/M: 1.1% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.1%e
- Japan Sept Industrial Production misses consensus (M/M: -1.6% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 9.8% v 10.5%e)
- South Korea Sept Industrial Production misses consensus (M/M: -1.8% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.0%e)
- China President X stated that Russia and China had deepened cooperation in many areas
- US State Dept: US Sec of State Blinken spoke with China State Councilor and the Foreign Min on managing responsibly the US-China relationship
- Risk sentiment turned sour following Ukraine/Russia events where Putin over weekend halted grain shipments, despite UN-brokered deal, in retaliation for a damaged vessel. Accordingly, Russia has ramped up missile strikes in Ukraine this morning.
-Big miss in Hong Kong Q3 Advance GDP reading QoQ -2.6% and YoY -4.5%. Conversely, Italian Q3 Prelim GDP beats at QoQ 0.5% and YoY 2.6%. Portugal Q3 prelim also beats QoQ 0.4% and YoY 4.9%. Austria Oct prelim CPI hits all time high since records began in 1958 at 11.0% YoY
-Markets digesting Brazil political results after leftist party leader Lula wins to resume office after a very close election.
US Session
-(BR) Brazil Sept Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -65.9B v -61.2Be; Primary Budget Balance: -30.3B v 11.0Be
-*(US) OCT CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGER’S INDEX (PMI): 45.2 V 47.0E
Europe and Asia
-(EU) EURO ZONE OCT CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 10.7% V 10.3%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 5.0% V 5.0%E
-(SE) Sweden Finance Ministry on economic outlook: Country heading for a tough winter
-(IT) ECB’s Visco (Italy, Dove): Rate rises must continue in order to reduce the risk of persistent high inflation; Careful approach required due to high uncertainty
-(IN) India Sept Fiscal Deficit (INR): 78.2B v 200.8B prior
-(DE) German Gas Commission: Next 2-3 winters could be critical but high gas prices also expected beyond that
-(IN) Upcoming RBI off-cycle meeting will likely discuss inflation letter with no rate action to be taken or discussed on Thurs, Nov 3rd - press
-(DE) German Econ Ministry Spokesperson: Cabinet should possibly this week decide about one-off payment for December (on gas price aid) - Commission Report
-OPEC 2022 World Oil Outlook (WOO) report: Raises long-term forecast due to developing world demand
-(IN) India Sept Eight Infrastructure (key) Industries: 7.9% v 3.3% prior
-(ES) ECB’s de Cos (Spain): Economic outlook has significantly darkened recently; Recession risks are spreading
Corporate Headlines
-TSP facing federal investigation into whether it improperly financed and transferred technology to a startup in China
-EMR guides initial FY23 $4.00-4.15, Rev +7-9%, Underlying Rev +6.5-8.5%; confirms to sell majority stake in Climate Technologies to Blackstone
-TMO announces $1.0B share buyback for Q4 (0.5% of market cap)
-GPN affirms FY22 $9.53-9.75 v $9.39e, Adjusts Net Rev +10-11% (cc) implies $9.37-9.46B v $9.39Be; Raises Adj OM bps +170bps y/y
-LLAP receives $100M Investment from Lockheed Martin
-PEG raises FY22 PSE&G's operating earnings $1.71-1.76B (prior: $1.51-1.56B)
-ATNM positive top-line results from pivotal Phase 3 SIERRA trial of Iomab-B in patients with active relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia
-ADNT names Jerome Dorlack CFO
-WYNN Tilman Fertitta Inc disclosed passive 6.1% stake
-Dow Jones -0.7%
- S&P 500 -0.8%
- Nasdaq -1.1%
- Russell 2000 -0.4%
Treasuries:
- 10-yr: +3.8bps at 4.050%
- 30-yr: +2.3bps at 4.152%
Commodities:
- Crude oil $87.42, -0.6%
- Gold $1641.55/oz, -0.3%
- Silver $19.10/oz, -0.2%
- Copper $3.38/oz, -1.3%