Hot CPI Breaks the Winning Streak — Six Weeks of Records Come Undone April inflation roared back to a three-year high of 3.8% — beating every major consensus — as the Iran war's energy shock bled deeper into the core. Chip stocks led a broad selloff, oil climbed back above $101, and markets are now pricing a 30% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end. The longest winning streak since 2024 is over.

CPI Day Arrives as US–Iran Ceasefire Hangs on “Life Support” Markets brace for April's critical US inflation print at 08:30 ET — the week's defining data point. Europe is set to open in the red after Trump rejected Tehran's latest peace proposal overnight, sending oil back above $104. A high-stakes Trump–Xi summit and a Fed Chair transition complete a week packed with macro risk.

Ceasefire on the Brink — US & Iran Exchange Fire in Strait of Hormuz as Dow Briefly Crosses 50,000. ⚡ US Non-Farm Payrolls (April) — Today at 13:30 CET / 08:30 ET The most market-moving US data release of the month. April NFP arrives against a backdrop of volatile geopolitics, a Fed in "wait-and-see" mode, and a market pricing zero cuts for 2026. A miss or beat here will determine whether the dollar rallies or retreats into the weekend. Watch unemployment rate and average hou

Wall Street staged a broad-based rally on Tuesday as oil prices retreated from Monday's surge and the Pentagon reaffirmed the US–Iran ceasefire. The S&P 500 gained +0.81%, the Nasdaq +0.93%, and small caps led with Russell 2000 up +1.43%. European indices rose sharply — STOXX 50 +1.80% — while the FTSE 100 bucked the trend. AMD's Q1 earnings, due after the close, hang over tonight's session.

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Markets Open May In The Green As Iran Signals a Deal The S&P 500 extended its record run into May 1st, aided by Apple's earnings beat and reports of a new Iranian Hormuz proposal. Brent crude fell over 3%. Bitcoin gained. The Strait remains closed — but the door cracked open.

A hawkish BoJ hold rattles bond desks in Tokyo. Mega-cap earnings season ignites with Visa, Coca-Cola, UPS, GM and Starbucks all on deck today. The FOMC two-day meeting begins. Iran's ceasefire deadline looms. This is everything you need to trade Tuesday.

Brent crude hovered near $96–98/barrel on Tuesday after surging more than 5% over the weekend when Iran seized and then re-closed the Strait. WTI climbed to approximately $88.70/barrel during the session. Markets had briefly priced in resolution risk after Friday's dramatic price collapse — only to see that optimism quickly unwound.

Hormuz Reopening Reversed — The Single Biggest Macro Catalyst Remains Unresolved Iran's Strait of Hormuz reopening — announced Friday by Foreign Minister Araghchi — has been reversed within 48 hours. The IEA April Oil Market Report estimated global inventories fell 85 million barrels in March, with loadings through Hormuz averaging just ~3.8 mb/d versus the normal 20+ mb/d.

The Strait of Hormuz has been under a dual blockade since late February, restricting approximately 20% of global oil supply and all Qatari LNG exports. WTI futures are softening near $90.68/bbl on ceasefire optimism, while Brent physical trades closer to $95.80/bbl. The IMF cut 2026 global growth to 3.1% from 3.3% and raised global inflation to 4.4% in its World Economic Outlook released Monday.