Ceasefire Holds, Records Break, Netflix Stumbles Overnight Wall Street ends Thursday at all-time highs as a Lebanon–Israel truce stabilises sentiment, TSMC surges on AI demand, and after-hours earnings deliver the first major miss of the season.

S&P 500 Crosses 7,000 Intraday. ASML Beats — Stock Falls. Trump: "Very Close to Over." Brent ~$97.

S&P Wipes Iran War Losses. Naval Blockade Live. No Islamabad Deal. Earnings Season Kicks Off. Brent ~$99.

Two-Week Ceasefire Holds. Oil –17%. S&P +2.56%. Airlines +10–12%. Islamabad Talks Friday April 10.

Deadline in Hours. Iran 10-Point Counter. Europe Re-Opens. Stoxx 600 +0.6%. Brent $109–111.

Axios confirmed a 45-day ceasefire is being discussed via four sources. NFP printed a weak 60K jobs on Friday (vs consensus ~57K, prior –92K). PCE core came in at +3.1% — the first print to show oil shock pass-through. This week: FOMC minutes Wednesday, ISM Services Monday, CPI April 9-10. The war and data calendar collide simultaneously.

Trump's first national address on the Iran war sent oil up 5.7% to above $106 in after-hours trading. The speech promised "extremely hard" hits over the next two to three weeks, no clear exit strategy, and told US allies to go secure the Strait of Hormuz themselves. ISM Manufacturing printed a shocking inflation warning — prices at their highest since 2022. Asia-Pacific sold off overnight. April 6 is four days away. Friday brings PCE inflation and Non-Farm Payrolls.

The Wall Street Journal reported Trump told aides he is willing to wind down the war even without Hormuz reopening. Reports that Iranian President Pezeshkian was open to ending the war in exchange for security guarantees sent the Dow up 1,125 points — its best session since May. The Nasdaq gained 3.83%. March closes as the worst month for stocks in years.

NVIDIA has tested the $170 resistance level three times in the first quarter of 2026. Despite blowout earnings and surging "Sovereign AI" demand from nation-states, the broader macro environment—defined by a 4.46% 10-year Treasury yield and rising stagflation fears—is acting as a gravitational anchor on tech multiples. Breaking $170 requires a dovish macro catalyst.

Dubai physical oil is up 76% vs Brent paper +36% — the most dangerous divergence in oil market history. This week delivers the April 6 binary on Monday April 6, and PCE inflation + Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.